Fred Henneke, Attorney & Counselor-At-Law
Well, I guess I qualify as a pundit now since I, like most commentators, called the election wrong. I just wish I was being paid like the others! Actually, I had three predictions:
1. The popular vote would be close, and it was. Some 600,000 difference out of 120 million votes cast.
2. The electoral vote would not be close, and it isn’t; 306 for Trump and 234 for Ms. Clinton.
3. Ms.Clinton would win. WRONG! Getting the statistical results correct doesn’t mean a hill of beans when you miss the final result.
So, what happened. Well, to start out, President Obama’s winning coalition did not follow blindly to Ms. Clinton and her vote in critical area was less than Obama’s in 2012. Secondly, Clinton became obsessed with the “not qualified” charge against Trump and ignored one key element of the Democratic base – the so-called Reagan democrats, blue-collar workers who felt forgotten and left behind by an increasingly global and high-tech economy – that tuned in to Trumps jobs and fair trade message. Third, the Comey letter 11 days before the election was a bucket of ice-cold water on the Clinton campaign and only served to bring back into the foreground all the concerns about her honesty and trustworthiness while pushing off the headlines Trump’s problems with alleged past sexual abuses. Fourth, the American electorate was tired of democratic administrations and Hillary Clinton. Historically, with the exception of VIce-President George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988 on the coattails of Ronald Reagan’s popularity, neither party has held the presidency for more that 8 consecutive years since FDR’s time. And no political figure has managed to stay on top as long as Hillary has since FDR, and she is no FDR.
And last, but certainly not least, Trump rose above his twitter addiction to position himself as the only agent for change who spoke for the legions of disaffected Americans. More than Hillary losing, Trump won. And I tip my Make America Great Again cap to him. Time to go to work fulfilling those campaign promises.